can't get media player to work

what am I doing wrong?

I'm trying to use IE's built in mediaplayer to play video off of my
site.

I've got 2 implementations – one is using an adserver (my company)
to stream video from, and that seems to be working ok (jazzguitar
guy on my site)

just following the code from other sites, i tried to link an image
to video on my own server, which is giving me an error. when you
click on the image that is linked to the video, it opens the
mediaplayer, but wont play the conent.

my blog: http://www.theviewfrommysofa.com/wordpress/

the top post is linked to video on my server.
the jazzguitar guy in the other post launches a new window that
plays the video.

any thoughts?